Southwest monsoon: El Nino weakening, IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall of 106%

• INDIA IS likely to receive “above normal” rainfall this monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its first long-range forecast for the season
• The country as a whole is expected to get 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA) rainfall, it said.

Ocean temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall:

• El Nino brings warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to less rain during India's monsoon season.
• La Nina, on the other hand, cools the Pacific Ocean and is linked to more monsoon rain in India.
• When neither El Nino or La Nina is happening, things are neutral, with sea surface temperatures around average.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):

• This is a climate pattern in the Indian Ocean where the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western sides is important.
• A positive IOD means cooler waters in the east and warmer waters in the west, and can also influence Indian monsoon rainfall.
• A negative IOD is the opposite, with warmer eastern waters and cooler western waters.

2024 Monsoon Forecast:

• India's weather service (IMD) predicts above average rainfall for most of the country in 2024.
• Normal rainfall is considered between 96% and 104% of the long-term average (average rainfall over the past 50 years).
• This year, the country is expected to receive 106% of the long-term average rainfall.

Prelims takeaway

• El nino
• La- nina