Rainfall rising in over half of India’s sub-districts, says four-decade study

Last Updated19/01/2024

Rainfall is increasing in more than half of India’s 4,400-odd tehsils or sub-districts, according to a granular analysis of changes in the Indian monsoon, conducted for the first time at the tehsil level.
55% of tehsils have seen a rise in rainfall, about 11% of them have experienced decreasing rainfall.

More worryingly, this decrease occurred largely during the critical southwest monsoon.
Most of these tehsils are in the Indo-Gangetic plains — which contribute to more than half of India’s agricultural production
- As well as in northeastern India, and the Indian Himalayan region.

An analysis at the district level reveals that 30% of India’s districts witnessed several more years of deficient rainfall and 38% saw many years of excessive rainfall.

Rainfall from the northeast monsoon — that sets in during October, November and December, primarily in peninsular India
- It has increased by more than 10% over the last decade (2012-2022) in approximately 80% of tehsils in Tamil Nadu, 44% in Telangana, and 39% in Andhra Pradesh, respectively.
The southwest monsoon accounts for nearly 76% of India’s annual rainfall, with about 11% coming from the northeast monsoon.
Several tehsils of Maharashtra and Goa, Odisha and West Bengal on the east coast have also been reporting increasing rainfall during these winter months.
- This increase could partly be attributed to cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
With increasing extreme weather events, hyper-local climate risk assessments and action plans are the way to go for India to keep leading in climate action and disaster risk reduction.