Scenarios for the future of India, and the world

Last Updated08/12/2022

Making predictions of the economic growth of nations is a lucrative industry employing many economists, researchers, analysts, and commentators.
The fast growth of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economies was forecast by economists at the turn of the millennium.

Commissioned by WEF for the BRICs countries in 2004.
Does not begin with the data.
Starts with listening to diverse points of view about happenings within a complex system
Aim: to understand undercurrents that will surface & disrupt predictions of economists.
Scenarios - shapes that a country’s economy may take in the future.

“BollyWorld” scenario
Revealed forces that may dampen future growth if not responded timely
Creation of opportunities for private enterprises
Rapid increases in the wealth of the top 1%
Entrepreneurial spirits were unleashed
Increasing petty urban crimes
Glamour and violence mixed for viewers of Bollywood movies
Becoming painful for millions of citizens living in it
“Atakta Bharat” scenario
Showed how increasing inequality and insecurity could:
- compel govt to impose controls on politics for security
- compel it to play a larger role without adequate resources
Heavy-handed government → dampen India’s democracy → stall its economy. In both the above scenarios, the “theory of change” is top-down. Change is led by leaders on top of large organizations in government and businesses.
Pahale India
Changes that people need are produced by them.
Such “enterprises by the people for the people” are more sustainable than top-down, large-scale programmes.
More inclusive economic growth, more environmentally sustainable.

The concentration of power in governments and large business monopolies for imposing more security and pushing faster GDP growth leads to “Atakta” (stalling) economies.
So, India must promote “Pahale India” model in the G-20 it is hosting this year. It must also adopt this “Gandhian” approach more determinedly to make “Pahale India” a reality for all Indian citizens.