The perfect cocktail of layered discrimination

• As India stands at a crucial juncture, the issue of delimitation—a recalibration of Lok Sabha seats per state—has emerged as a matter of profound importance. Originally postponed by leaders like Indira Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee due to its potential divisiveness, this issue must now be addressed by a new generation.
• The question facing the nation is whether to postpone, proceed with, or modify delimitation, with significant consequences for the federal structure of India and the representation of its diverse regions.

Delimitation and Its Constitutional Basis

What is Delimitation?:

• Article 82 of the Indian Constitution mandates a readjustment of Lok Sabha seats for each state following every Census, aiming to keep representation aligned with population changes.
• The last delimitation, based on the 1971 Census, was paused in 1976 to avoid penalizing states successful in controlling population growth. This freeze was extended by the Vajpayee government in 2001 for another 25 years, postponing further adjustment until at least 2026. The Modi government, however, has signaled a potential delimitation exercise before the 2029 elections, which has sparked considerable debate.

The Delimitation Dilemma

Impact on Representation:

• States with lower Total Fertility Rates (TFR), such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala, have effectively controlled population growth, while states in the Hindi heartland, including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, continue to have high TFRs.
• A delimitation based on current demographics would substantially shift parliamentary representation toward states with higher populations. For example, the proportion of seats for southern states could reduce from 25% to 17%, with seats in the Hindi heartland increasing from 40% to 60%.
• This change would centralize political power in favor of states with higher population growth, where the ruling BJP enjoys strong support.

Economic Contributions and Federal Balance:

• Many economically advanced states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka contribute a significant share of GDP and tax revenue relative to their populations. However, less economically developed states with higher populations, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, already receive a disproportionately high share of financial transfers.

Federalism at Stake

• India’s federal structure, enshrined in its Constitution, recognizes the unique identities of states formed primarily along linguistic and cultural lines. The framers intended for India to be a multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic federation, with no single group exerting dominance. However, a recalibrated seat distribution could lead to a perceived majoritarianism, which non-Hindi states argue threatens the delicate balance upon which India’s federal unity is founded.

Potential Solutions

Extend the Freeze on Delimitation:

• Following the precedents set by leaders like Indira Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the freeze on seat redistribution could be extended for another 25 years, allowing time to address regional concerns about representation and economic equity.

Permanent Freeze on Interstate Redistribution:

• A permanent freeze could be implemented, preserving the current allocation of Lok Sabha seats to maintain regional representation despite demographic shifts. However, this could also be seen as undermining the principle of representation based on population.

Delimitation with Decentralization:

• Proceeding with delimitation could be balanced by a new federal agreement, transferring more powers to states to preserve their autonomy. This could include abolishing the Concurrent List and giving states broader control over legislative matters, while retaining central authority over defense, foreign policy, and currency.

Preserve Current Seat Ratios and Increase Overall Seats:

• Another approach is to retain the current ratio of seats across states but expand the total number of Lok Sabha seats, thereby providing some compensation for population growth without significantly reducing the representation of states with lower population growth.

Conclusion: A Test for India’s Federal Integrity

• Delimitation brings India to a crossroads: the nation can either maintain its unique federal character or risk a shift toward centralized majoritarianism. Unlike states like Russia or China, where one ethno-linguistic group dominates, India is a union of many languages, cultures, and identities—a true tapestry.
• The decision taken on delimitation will shape the future of Indian federalism and unity, marking either a strengthening of its democratic plurality or a potential drift toward central dominance.