The rising population and the issue of depopulation
- Recently, when the population touched 8 billion, focus was on how India was the largest contributor to the last billion and is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2023.
- But missing in this conversation is the real threat of depopulation that parts of India too face, and the country’s complete lack of preparedness to deal with it.
Population stats in the coming years
- United Nations - India’s population will begin to decline only in 2063.
- Global population is expected to grow until 2086.
Fertility in India
- Falling along expected lines due to rising incomes and greater female access to health and education.
- India’s total fertility rate is below the replacement rate of fertility.
- Many states have achieved replacement fertility & is below the replacement rate for so long that they are at the cusp of real declines in population.
- In the next 4 years, both Tamil Nadu & Kerala will see the first declines in their working-age populations in their histories.
- Here, fewer working-age people must support more elderly people than ever.
- In female elderly, economic dependence is a serious concern.
- Both States will also need to re-examine the continued sustainability of low in-migration.
Three challenges of a depopulating future
- Danger of a skewed sex ratio
- NFHS - families with at least one son are less likely to want more children than families with just one daughter.
- Stark differences between northern and southern States
- In terms of basic literacy & enrolment in higher education
- Workers from southern States are not automatically replaceable.
- Sharp anti-Muslim tone in the fertility reduction conversation
- Conversations around fertility reductions in the southern States
- Framed around the price that these States are having to pay wrt others in terms of the share of federal tax receipts or political representation.
- Question of the price their own citizens will have to bear in terms of economic productivity and welfare sustainability.
Conclusion
- With decades of focus on lowering fertility, the conversation in India is stuck in a rut. It is for the southern States to break away from this outmoded, data-free rhetoric and join the global conversation on depopulation.